Opening Night Impressions

     After watching the Bulls/Heat game, I had just a few observations.  First, Derrick Rose will return to MVP form.  Every person who took him in the second round was right to do so.  Next, the big 3 will have a great season.  Their numbers will be lower because of the new depth, but they should be filling the stat sheet.  Finally, Wade looked really healthy.  He looked lighter and was able to get to the rim with ease.  If there was one season he might stay healthy, it is this year.  Around the league, the whole Pacers team had a field day against the Magic and the Lakers pulled out an upset.  Paul George, Lance Stephenson, David West, and Roy Hibbert all had fantasy lines you could be proud of.  Lance is worth an add due to the extended and never ending return of Danny Granger.  Chris Paul and Pau Gasol were the main headliners of battle L.A.  Blake Griffin had a pedestrian showing putting up 19 points (53%FG) (3/10FT), 7 rebounds, 3 assist, and a steal.  He has never been physical enough for me.  DeAndre Jordan had a great game with 17 points, 11 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 steals, and an assist.  The steals and points will probably come down. Expect the blocks all season.  If Griffin had the same mentality as DJ, he would be a force to reckon with.  The season for almost every other team starts tonight.

Rise And Plight

     There are quite a few players I feel like are falling down the fantasy stairs, but here I will only single out three.  Marques Colston, who I mentioned in a previous post, had a total of 1 point yesterday.  The Drew Brees train is leaving Colston and moving on to Kenny Stills (24 points).  Tom Brady is not playing Brady football this year.  His young receiving core and lack of health weapons is making his play worse.  You could say, "His hand was swollen and he could not throw yesterday. Give the man a break".  However, there is no break to be given here.  Over the last three weeks, Chad Henne (Jax), rookie Mike Glennon (TB), and Big Ben (PIT) have outscored Brady.  The third player also plays for the Pats, Kembrell Thompkins.  The Pats are slowly phasing Thompkins out giving him only 18 snaps yesterday with no targets.  The middle players this week are Andre Ellington and DeSean Jackson.  You can add Ellington, but if there was no 80 yard TD run for Ellington, he would have finished with 7 points.  Jackson has had an up and down season.  Matt Barkley diminishes his value greatly.  On the rise is Harry Douglas, Jordan Reed, Andy Dalton, and Marvin Jones.  Harry Douglas has 19 receptions for 270 yards and a TD over the last two games.  I need not say more.  Jordan Reed is a great TE option and has 17 receptions for 224 yards and a TD in the last couple weeks.  Andy Dalton is averaging over 20 points per game over the three games.  He has a slightly less favorable next couple games against MIA and BAL, but after that he looks like gold.  Dalton finally discovered there are more WRs on his team and Marvin Jones has benefited greatly.  Over the last three games he has posted a 15/250/6 line.  He will not keep up with that insane 4 TD performance, but he does average 16 yards per catch.  As long as A.J. Green is healthy, Jones will get the ball in the redzone.

Fantasy Player Separation Anxiety

     Every person that is a sports fan has knowledge of certain players names.  Going into a draft, you look for those people.  Saints fan?  You might pick up Marques Colston, Drew Brees, even Lance Moore.  The season starts and you are thinking to yourself, "with Brees at QB, Colston is going to be a monster this season".  Colston gets 12 points in the first game.  Your intuition pays off.  Next game, he gets only 6 points.  Not what you are looking for, but it will get you by.  Two more games, 7 and 9 points respectively.  Still worth starting.  The next two games, he only manages 2 points combined.  You can slide by with 6 or 7 points, but 1 point will simply not do.  He is coming off a bye week and going up against a terrible Bills secondary.  Would you start him?  I have him starting in one league, and I believe he deserves one more chance.  But if Colston can not return to consistent numbers, I am not afraid to drop him if.  The go big or go home mentality is real.  Holding on to players for namesake is never a good idea unless there is literally no one on the waiver wire.  If you want a different example, I have dropped Roddy White.  No points and not healthy.  Someone else may pick him up, but I already have Harry Douglas who had 20 points last week in standard leagues and is healthy.  It is never easy to admit you made a mistake with a high pick, but sometimes it is the difference between winning or losing.

Missing The Draft

     This is just a short angry rant, so I may make another post later.  When you join a fantasy league, you only have two responsibilities: drafting and team care.  On average, every league I have ever drafted in has usually half the people in attendance for the draft itself.  Now I can understand if you had something comes up, but the whole league?  When I look at the league and read the draft time, I make sure I am going to be home.  When that "draft starts" timer hits zero, I will be in my chair scheming.  I do not even have an evil cat to share my draft strategy with.  The point is, unless you have an autodraft league, plan for your drafts.  Be present and accounted for.  It is the best way to get the most out of both fantasy sports, as a whole, and your team.

My 5th Draft Pick Option In 8-Cat Leagues

    My first fantasy basketball draft of the year approaches today and I wanted to share some input that goes against the rankings.  LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Chris Paul are all legit top 4 picks.  However, going into an 8-cat league, my 5th pick is Serge Ibaka.  Ibaka is the only high volume shot blocker that shoots over 70% from the free throw line.  Larry Sanders, JaVale McGee, and Dwight Howard all shoot sub 70% (Howard shoots 49%!!!).  Tim Duncan does not play all season, which is great for winning championships in reality, not fantasy.  If you can not get Ibaka, look for Roy  Hibbert and Joahkim Noah early in the draft.  Winning the "blocks" category is essential, but make sure you do not concede another category in the process.

For Rookie Fantasy Football Players: Why Plodders Are Fantasy Trash

     Just like the entire WR category, fantasy plodders (I.E. Peyton Hillis, Mike Tolbert) are completely TD oriented.  What is the big difference between them and the rest of the fantasy world?  Well, for starters, lets look at Mr. Tolbert.  In seven games, he has recorded 39 fantasy points.  Not bad considering DeAngelo Williams has 49.  The stat the really sticks out though is Tolberts average of 30 yards a game.  He is averaging just over 3 yards a carry on 7 carries a game.  Say the Panthers revert to their no TD scoring self for a course of 3-4 weeks.  That leaves you with a player on your team averaging 2-3 points a week.  Kickers have more value than Tolbert.  Hillis and his older counterpart Brandon Jacobs fall into this similar category though they would record more carries for around the same average.  Hillis is not worth a flier this week due to fumble issues and the INT leader being his QB.

The Return of the Riddler

 After five weeks of waiting, Stevan Ridley has finally started giving us the second round production we have been waiting for, posting two consecutive weeks of ten plus points. Two weeks ago, I had Ridley wrote off as one of the other fantasy busts RB's (yeah, I mean you Ray Rice and C.J. Spiller).  With Ridley's recent play, you can confidently start him in all leagues. Gronk may have returned, but Ridley was the man with the TD.  The only thing that can and probably will rain on this parade is the return of Shane Vereen.  He will return to the Pats' around week ten.  The good news is they will take it slow with Vereen unless Ridley starts coughing up the ball again.  The bad news, well its Bill Belichick and you never know what he will do next.