The Day After Week 14

    Everyone should be in the playoffs now.  Sometimes these players make me eat my words i.e. EJ Manuel (1pt) and Andre Holmes (6pt).  Fantasy sports have so much luck involved it should be an extension of Vegas.  At least some of us do not play for money. Well here it goes.

Promotions

QB - Josh McCown (CHI)

HB - Joique Bell (DET)

WR - Julian Edelman (NE)

TE - Dennis Pitta (BAL)

    Josh McCown is older than most of the people who read my blog, but he has all the weapons to get the fantasy job done until Cutler is completely healthy.  Reggie Bush is the all-star back in the lions backfield, but he has been fighting off nagging injuries lately.  Julian Edelman is already good and now that Gronk is gone he is even better.  Dennis Pitta came back from injury this last week and showed us he is ready to put points back on the board for a dismal Ravens offense.

Demotions

QB - Mike Glennon (TB)

HB - Stevan Ridley (NE)

WR - Pierre Garcon (WAS)

TE - Gronk (NE)

    Glennon has been consistent.  He was carrying the team at first with his arm and then Greg Shiano decided that running the ball makes more sense.  Ridley fumbled once and Vereen has been starting since.  Garcon racks up a ton of targets (2nd in the league) and very few yards.  Gronk just being Gronk on the IR now.

One-Hit Wonders

QB - Geno Smith (NYJ)

HB - Shonn Greene (TEN)

WR - LaVon Brazill (IND)

TE - Luke Wilson (SEA)

    I have seen broken windshield wipers do better than Geno Smith on a weekly basis.  Greene had two TDs for the first time since the Jets were good.  LaVon Brazill rides the pine like its a bull.  Luke Wilson is the blocking TE, his hands are made of stone.

The Day After Week 13

I am running late this week on my writing.  For some of you, the playoffs are starting and others the season is ending.  Here is to a championship run or a " Get ready for next season because I will win next year ".

Promotions
QB - EJ Manuel (BUF)
HB - Donald Brown (IND)
WR - Doug Balwin (SEA)
TE - Ladarius Green (SD)

    With all these injuries floating around, having a back up option is not a bad idea.  Manuel fits that bill after posting back to back solid performances.  Donald Brown has taken over the feature back duties in Indy and though he is not a must start this weekend, he has a few must start weeks remaining for that playoff push you may need.  Baldwin has 45 points over the last 4 weeks and nothing lower than 7.  Ladarius Green is looking like the new Antonio Gates averaging just over 10 points per game for the last 3 weeks.

Demotions
QB - Andrew Luck (IND)
HB - Giovani Bernard (CIN)
WR - Dwayne Bowe (KC)
TE - Antonio Gates (SD)

    Andrew Luck looked like he had turned the fantasy corner and at that moment, we stood in awe.  Then the last three weeks happened.  Do not drop him, but pray he ends the slump.  Giovani Bernard is one of the most electric running backs in the game and that is why he is owned, but the ship is sinking the last couple of weeks.  I really like Bowe.  I knew that he would throw a few games in there to reward some patient owners and then return to Alex Smith-ocrtiy.  Antonio Gates is not what he use to be and that is why the Chargers are turning to Ladarius Green.  Gates has 4 points over the last 2 weeks.

One-Hit Wonders
QB - Brandon Weeden (CLE)
HB - BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN)
WR - Andre Holmes (OAK)
TE - Zach Ertz (PHI)

    Brandon Weeden is not good.  Josh Gordon made Weeden look good.  The Law Firm has been going through papers lately and decided to show up at court (score a TD).  Who is Andre Holmes?  Zach Ertz is the more athletic side of Brent Celek.  Nick Foles feeds him a few yards a game to keep him happy and every once in a blue moon, he gives fantasy owners a treat.

The Day After Week 12

Promotions
QB - Alex Smith (KC)
HB - Benny Cunningham (STL)
WR - Kendall Wright (TEN)
TE - Colby Fleener (IND)

    Alex Smith has had to actually throw the ball of late and not just put the game on cruise control behind that scary defense.  Zac Stacy is injured going into this weekend and the prime beneficiary of the carries will be Benny.  Kendall Wright is slowly becoming more and more consistent scoring over 6 points a week for the last 3 weeks.  Reggie Wayne's absence has been killing the Colts, but Luck finally started to see the big TE giving Fleener over 20 points for the last two weeks.

Demotions
QB - Joe Flacco (BAL)
HB - Stevan Ridley (NE)
WR - Danny Amendola (NE)
TE - Jordan Cameron (CLE)

     Joe Flacco is absolutely terrible without any weapons.  It is a wonder that the Ravens even won a Super Bowl.  Ridley is back in the doghouse with yet another fumble.  His status going into the next game is TBD.  Danny Amendola has been healthy and still does not get ball.  Not worth the hassle. Jordan Cameron was a huge success story at the beginning of the season,  but lately they have been leaving his number out of the plays.

One Hit Wonders

QB - Colin Kaepernick (SF)
HB - Marcel Reece (OAK)
WR - Donnie Avery (KC)
TE - Jared Cook (STL)

    Every good game Kaepernick has had this season have been against terrible teams (i.e. Jacksonville, Washington).  Marcel Reece is one of the best FBs in football, just not a good fantasy option since Jennings is in the drivers seat.  Donnie Avery went over 10 points for only the second time this season.  It is not a growing trend.  Jared Cook has the potential to be a top 10 TE in terms of ability, but he never gets that break.  Since the two TD performance at the beginning of the season, he has only managed two more.  Lance Kendricks also hawked a few TDs from him.  

NFL Week 12 Predictions

DEN@NE - Denver wins in a lopsided affair.  Welker has a 2 TD performance.

PIT@CLE - The Steelers defense continues to assert itself as they beat the Browns 24 - 14

TB@DET - Calvin Johnson gets only 60 yards but the Lions still win behind Reggie Bush.

MIN@GB - The team with the most rushing TDs win and GB will pull out the upset.

SD@KC - The Chiefs come back in style winning 21-7.

CHI@STL - The Rams blowout the Bears in one of those weird breakout games.

CAR@MIA - Panthers continue to roll, Cam gets 2 TDs.

NYJ@BAL - Baltimore finally pulls one out and wins 21-17.

JAX@HOU - Houston folds and gives the game away late to the Jags.  Low scoring affair 17-14.

TEN@OAK - The Raiders stay in the playoff hunt with a win.  Titans are reeling.

IND@ARI - Donald Brown has another great game, but the Cardinals stay hot.

DAL@NYG - Manning throws more TDs than picks in a ghost pass defense thriller.

SF@WAS - RG3 leads his team to victory and rights the ship for a week.

The Day After Week 11

Did the Patriots get rob?  Everyone seems to think so.  From the angle I saw, even if Kuechly was not holding Gronk the ball was well under thrown.  The Patriots will still make the playoffs though and this will stick around all season.

Promotions
QB - Nick Foles (PHI)
HB - Bobby Rainey (TB)
WR - Doug Baldwin (SEA)
TE - Delanie Walker (TEN)

    I do not like Foles, but he has proven he can run Chip Kelley's system extremely well and that is big for him.  Bobby Rainey put on a clinic against the hapless Falcons and is worth adding.  Doug Baldwin is developing a beautiful relationship with Russell Wilson and has two TD rec over the last three weeks.  And I was wrong last week, Walker is becoming a redzone target for Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick made Scott Chandler ownable last season which means Walker is in for an upgrade.

Demotions
QB - Matt Ryan (ATL)
HB - Trent Richardson (IND)
WR - Eddie Royal (SD)
TE - Martellus Bennett (CHI)

    Matt Ryan has been terrible, he is now waiver fodder.  Trent Richardson has been bad all season, and is now being out performed by Donald Brown.  Leave Royal on the wire.  He only gets points once every four weeks.  Bennett has been a great addition to the Bears, but not fantasy teams over the last few weeks.

One Hit Wonders
QB - Carson Palmer (ARI)
HB - Montee Ball (DEN)
WR - Jarius Wright (MIN)
TE - Danny Noble (JAX)

    Palmer faced the Jaguars.  Montee Ball benefited from two TDs and Moreno has a stranglehold on the starting job.  Jarius Wright has 16 receptions on the season and only this week did any of them go for TDs.  Danny Noble?  One reception this year.   Do not even look at him.

Bold Predictions in the NFL Week 11

KC@DEN - The Chiefs lose finally.

NYJ@BUF - The teams will rely on their terrible QBs and this game will be a stinker.

BAL@CHI - Josh McCown who gets paid virtually nothing will out perform Flucco.

CLE@CIN - Jason Cambell shreds CIN for another Browns win.

WAS@PHI - WAS make Foles look bad at home and get a much needed win.

DET@PIT - PIT defense returns to form and holds DET to 10 points.

ATL@TB - TB gets another win in a very slow paced game.

ARI@JAX - JAX carries momentum and slows down the Cardinals for another win.

OAK@HOU - Keenum gets his first win of the season.

SD@MIA - MIA loses by 20+.

SF@NO - NO wins 13 - 10.

GB@NYG - Giants torch GB en route to 14 point win.

MIN@SEA - AP puts MIN on his back and steals one for the Seahawks.

NE@CAR - Brady and the Pats get stomped in CAR to the tune of 30 - 14.

The Day After Week 10

     Bare with me as I find a way to format this every week. I will list one player from each position in the relative categories.  This is my opinion, so feel free to scrutinize my choices.

    Week 10 is in the books and there were not many surprises.

Promotions

QB - Case Keenum (HOU)

HB - Andre Brown (NYG)

WR - Riley Cooper (PHI)

TE - John Carlson (MIN)

     Case Keenum has had back-to-back good outings and has a great relationship with Andre Johnson that gives him a higher ceiling.  Andre Brown picked up where he left off and is going to get a lot off carries in the Giant's struggling offense.  Riley Cooper is looking like a good pick up in deeper leagues as long as he has Nick Foles at the helm.  And John Carlson will step in for Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota's anemic offense, he will get targets and points.

Demotions

QB - Andy Dalton (CIN)

HB - Lamar Miller (MIA)

WR - Jordy Nelson (GB)

TE - Tony Gonzalez  (ATL)

    

      A couple weeks back I predicted Andy Dalton would have a rough few weeks, and I guessed right.  If you have him, hold on and hope for the best.  Lamar Miller did not even get a yard.  With the Martin-Incognito problem looming (and lack of those two on the field), Miller is no longer a viable fantasy option unless you like the idea of him running at lineman with virtually no line.  Jordy Nelson is a great receiver and will become relevant when Rodgers returns in a few weeks.  Till then, find a better option.  And I love Gonzo as a player, but since Julio Jones went down, he has struggled mightily.  Plus he is dealing with a mysterious toe injury.

The One Time Wonders

QB - Kellen Clemens (STL)

HB - The entire Saints HB core (NO)

WR - Tavon Austin (STL)

TE - Delanie Walker (TEN)

     Clemens is average.  His ceiling and floor are not very far apart.  If you think for one moment that Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas will have a week like this ever again, you are smoking something.  Sproles is a legit option.  Tavon Austin broke out with 31 points and while the physical attributes are there, I just do not see him putting up anything like this again this season.  He has scored 5 points or less (four 0s) in 8 out of 10 games.  His worth is mainly in leagues that give points to returners.  Delanie Walker caught his second TD of the year against Jacksonville.  He is this years Brandon Pettigrew.  Gets a lot of yards when he feels like it. 

Bold NFL Predictions for the week

     I have a few ideas about how things will go this week.

 DAL/NO - Neither team will have a rushing TD.  Both teams have solid run defenses, but are terrible against the pass.

SEA/ATL - Stevan Jackson will have his first breakout game of the season.

DET/CHI - Reggie Bush will take over the game.

GB/PHI - I still do not like Nick Foles, but I have a feeling he throws at least 3 TD against a reeling Packers defense.

JAX/TEN - The Jags will win. NOT.  CJ?K will have another great performance.  Nothing to see here.

STL/IND - Trent Richardson finally has a draft worthy game.  STL defense will be on Luck all day.

OAK/NYG - Oakland will sneak out with a win.  Interceptions everywhere.

BUF/PIT - CJ Spiller will have another note worthy game.  About time.

CIN/BAL - Andy Dalton will not have a TD pass.

CAR/SF - Mike Tolberts TD streak will end and so will CAR luck.

HOU/ARI - Case Keenum will look bad.  Patrick Peterson will have a pick or 2.

DEN/SD - Denver will give up the game at the end.  SD wins 38-35.

MIA/TB - Tampa finally gets a win with the Dolphins having bullying problems.  I thought this was football?

The byes end soon, hold on everyone.

The Cool Down

     Week 2 in the NBA is typically the cool down week.  We saw the likes of MCW, Miles Plumlee, and Vitor Faverani post massive lines in the first few games.  This week however, they are starting too put up more realistic lines.  I call this the waiting period.  Some players when the dust clears are worth owning.  Others will hurt your team in categories that you need.  Michael Carter-Williams look like the next coming of Derron Williams, having games shooting 50% from the field and a lot steals.  He came down to earth against Golden State scoring 18 points on 23% shooting (that'll put a dent in your FG% for the week).  In my opinion, he is going into carry mode and that will hurt his future more than help it.  Miles Plumlee is still worth owning in deeper leagues because he has a higher ceiling than most of the other FA bigs remaining.  Vitor is going to be more inconsistent than a satellite dish in a monsoon.  There are a few players that are for real this season.  And you better hope you drafted them.  The nugget for the day is buy-low or sell-high on DeMarcus Cousins.  He has always been half on the bench, half in the game.

The Day After

     First off, I will admit I may have been wrong about Tolbert.  I still would not pick him up, but he seems to be getting all of the goal line carries.  I am not sold on Nick Foles and neither should you be.  He has had a few games that turned out well when he stays consistent.  Consistency is not part of his game though.  Reshad Jennings is all green on the waiver wire with McFadden going down with yet another injury.  Zac Stacy should be owned in all leagues.  Jeff Fisher loves him and Kellen Clemens is terrible.  Chris Ivory is slowly making a gap between him and Bilal Powell.  T.Y. Hilton should also be owned in all leagues now that he has taken over Reggie Wayne's X position on the offense.  Aaron Dobson is looking better each week and I would expect 6 - 10 points a week from him.  Congratulations to Andre Johnson for finally making it into the endzone.  No real big stories at TE.  Timothy Wright is on the rise though.  These bye weeks are getting to a lot of us, but that is why you study and make good choices (or read other peoples work because you do not have the time).  The biggest surprise of the week goes to Tom Brady and Case Keenum.  Brady has a bye and Keenum would be a stream start against the Cardinals.

The Bug

     One thing is certain every time you start a season, you will lose at least one person for the season.  You will also lose at least one other player for an extended amount of time.  It never fails.  The only thing you can do to prevent it is to go with players that are not injury prone.  Risk can sometimes equal reward, but it can also put you on waiver-wire support for the rest of the season.  You can make the playoffs on waiver-wire support, but that will not win you a championship (unless your league is oblivious).  With the new rules in the NFL, players are going down like flies.  It is not going to change any time soon.  ACL/MCL tears will destroy so many seasons.  So far, no big injuries have occurred in the NBA through a few games.  Most of the big injuries will come around mid-season.  The "Watch Player" option  is for this very reason.  If you find a nugget in your league and you can not add him, put him on the watch list.  You have a player go down and boom, you have someone you already love.  Using your tools is just one of many ways to improve your team.  Always be prepared for the worse and hope for the best.

Opening Night Impressions

     After watching the Bulls/Heat game, I had just a few observations.  First, Derrick Rose will return to MVP form.  Every person who took him in the second round was right to do so.  Next, the big 3 will have a great season.  Their numbers will be lower because of the new depth, but they should be filling the stat sheet.  Finally, Wade looked really healthy.  He looked lighter and was able to get to the rim with ease.  If there was one season he might stay healthy, it is this year.  Around the league, the whole Pacers team had a field day against the Magic and the Lakers pulled out an upset.  Paul George, Lance Stephenson, David West, and Roy Hibbert all had fantasy lines you could be proud of.  Lance is worth an add due to the extended and never ending return of Danny Granger.  Chris Paul and Pau Gasol were the main headliners of battle L.A.  Blake Griffin had a pedestrian showing putting up 19 points (53%FG) (3/10FT), 7 rebounds, 3 assist, and a steal.  He has never been physical enough for me.  DeAndre Jordan had a great game with 17 points, 11 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 steals, and an assist.  The steals and points will probably come down. Expect the blocks all season.  If Griffin had the same mentality as DJ, he would be a force to reckon with.  The season for almost every other team starts tonight.

Rise And Plight

     There are quite a few players I feel like are falling down the fantasy stairs, but here I will only single out three.  Marques Colston, who I mentioned in a previous post, had a total of 1 point yesterday.  The Drew Brees train is leaving Colston and moving on to Kenny Stills (24 points).  Tom Brady is not playing Brady football this year.  His young receiving core and lack of health weapons is making his play worse.  You could say, "His hand was swollen and he could not throw yesterday. Give the man a break".  However, there is no break to be given here.  Over the last three weeks, Chad Henne (Jax), rookie Mike Glennon (TB), and Big Ben (PIT) have outscored Brady.  The third player also plays for the Pats, Kembrell Thompkins.  The Pats are slowly phasing Thompkins out giving him only 18 snaps yesterday with no targets.  The middle players this week are Andre Ellington and DeSean Jackson.  You can add Ellington, but if there was no 80 yard TD run for Ellington, he would have finished with 7 points.  Jackson has had an up and down season.  Matt Barkley diminishes his value greatly.  On the rise is Harry Douglas, Jordan Reed, Andy Dalton, and Marvin Jones.  Harry Douglas has 19 receptions for 270 yards and a TD over the last two games.  I need not say more.  Jordan Reed is a great TE option and has 17 receptions for 224 yards and a TD in the last couple weeks.  Andy Dalton is averaging over 20 points per game over the three games.  He has a slightly less favorable next couple games against MIA and BAL, but after that he looks like gold.  Dalton finally discovered there are more WRs on his team and Marvin Jones has benefited greatly.  Over the last three games he has posted a 15/250/6 line.  He will not keep up with that insane 4 TD performance, but he does average 16 yards per catch.  As long as A.J. Green is healthy, Jones will get the ball in the redzone.

Fantasy Player Separation Anxiety

     Every person that is a sports fan has knowledge of certain players names.  Going into a draft, you look for those people.  Saints fan?  You might pick up Marques Colston, Drew Brees, even Lance Moore.  The season starts and you are thinking to yourself, "with Brees at QB, Colston is going to be a monster this season".  Colston gets 12 points in the first game.  Your intuition pays off.  Next game, he gets only 6 points.  Not what you are looking for, but it will get you by.  Two more games, 7 and 9 points respectively.  Still worth starting.  The next two games, he only manages 2 points combined.  You can slide by with 6 or 7 points, but 1 point will simply not do.  He is coming off a bye week and going up against a terrible Bills secondary.  Would you start him?  I have him starting in one league, and I believe he deserves one more chance.  But if Colston can not return to consistent numbers, I am not afraid to drop him if.  The go big or go home mentality is real.  Holding on to players for namesake is never a good idea unless there is literally no one on the waiver wire.  If you want a different example, I have dropped Roddy White.  No points and not healthy.  Someone else may pick him up, but I already have Harry Douglas who had 20 points last week in standard leagues and is healthy.  It is never easy to admit you made a mistake with a high pick, but sometimes it is the difference between winning or losing.

Missing The Draft

     This is just a short angry rant, so I may make another post later.  When you join a fantasy league, you only have two responsibilities: drafting and team care.  On average, every league I have ever drafted in has usually half the people in attendance for the draft itself.  Now I can understand if you had something comes up, but the whole league?  When I look at the league and read the draft time, I make sure I am going to be home.  When that "draft starts" timer hits zero, I will be in my chair scheming.  I do not even have an evil cat to share my draft strategy with.  The point is, unless you have an autodraft league, plan for your drafts.  Be present and accounted for.  It is the best way to get the most out of both fantasy sports, as a whole, and your team.

My 5th Draft Pick Option In 8-Cat Leagues

    My first fantasy basketball draft of the year approaches today and I wanted to share some input that goes against the rankings.  LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Chris Paul are all legit top 4 picks.  However, going into an 8-cat league, my 5th pick is Serge Ibaka.  Ibaka is the only high volume shot blocker that shoots over 70% from the free throw line.  Larry Sanders, JaVale McGee, and Dwight Howard all shoot sub 70% (Howard shoots 49%!!!).  Tim Duncan does not play all season, which is great for winning championships in reality, not fantasy.  If you can not get Ibaka, look for Roy  Hibbert and Joahkim Noah early in the draft.  Winning the "blocks" category is essential, but make sure you do not concede another category in the process.

For Rookie Fantasy Football Players: Why Plodders Are Fantasy Trash

     Just like the entire WR category, fantasy plodders (I.E. Peyton Hillis, Mike Tolbert) are completely TD oriented.  What is the big difference between them and the rest of the fantasy world?  Well, for starters, lets look at Mr. Tolbert.  In seven games, he has recorded 39 fantasy points.  Not bad considering DeAngelo Williams has 49.  The stat the really sticks out though is Tolberts average of 30 yards a game.  He is averaging just over 3 yards a carry on 7 carries a game.  Say the Panthers revert to their no TD scoring self for a course of 3-4 weeks.  That leaves you with a player on your team averaging 2-3 points a week.  Kickers have more value than Tolbert.  Hillis and his older counterpart Brandon Jacobs fall into this similar category though they would record more carries for around the same average.  Hillis is not worth a flier this week due to fumble issues and the INT leader being his QB.

The Return of the Riddler

 After five weeks of waiting, Stevan Ridley has finally started giving us the second round production we have been waiting for, posting two consecutive weeks of ten plus points. Two weeks ago, I had Ridley wrote off as one of the other fantasy busts RB's (yeah, I mean you Ray Rice and C.J. Spiller).  With Ridley's recent play, you can confidently start him in all leagues. Gronk may have returned, but Ridley was the man with the TD.  The only thing that can and probably will rain on this parade is the return of Shane Vereen.  He will return to the Pats' around week ten.  The good news is they will take it slow with Vereen unless Ridley starts coughing up the ball again.  The bad news, well its Bill Belichick and you never know what he will do next.