Top 10 QB's (Pre-Draft, Post Free Agency)

     So I went back and took a look at the top 10 fantasy arms from last year.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Andrew Luck
3. Russell Wilson
4. Peyton Manning
5. Ben Roethlisburger
6. Drew Brees
7. Matt Ryan
8. Tom Brady
9. Ryan Tannehill
10. Eli Manning  <------ Wow

  From most of the guys, I expect a repeat performance.  But there are a few that are going to drop significantly.  These are my personal projections and rankings as of today.  The NFL draft will not effect most of these projections, unless something astonishing happens.
                             
                                      C/A     YDS        TD  INT   RUSH     YDS   TD
1. A. Rodgers            341/525    4,445     40    7        45           261     2
2. R. Wilson              288/463    3,610     27    9        108         702     5
3. A. Luck                 343/570    4,236     34    11      70           308     4
4. Big Ben                 406/603    4,808     30    14      30           41       0
T4. P. Manning         385/566    4,483     37    13      23           -22      0
6. TB 12                    410/625    4,421     36    12      31           20       0
7. R. Tannehill          390/601    4,125     30    14      51           287     2
8. M. Ryan                423/618    4,636     28    16      24           78       0
9. D. Brees                376/548    4,522     29    12      25           50       1
10. E. Manning         382/612    4,332     27    16      12           32       0

Honorable Mentions: Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers.

  Rodgers is poised to have a repeat as the reigning best QB in fantasy.  Russell Wilson finally has a target to throw to in Jimmy Graham.  It is not a massive jump, but you can count on him throwing a few more TD's this season.  Luck has Gore in the backfield now, so expect the Colts to scale back the passing attack a tad.  Big Ben and the Steelers are loaded and lost no one from the offensive side of the ball this off season.  Manning will be Manning, but I have my doubts about whether or not new head coach Gary Kubiak is going to be going with an air assault.  I expect to see more play action pass to go with the declining arm strength of Manning.  Tom Brady will be throwing more this year to keep the Patriots in the game.  The losses the Pats suffered this off-season will make New England's games closer, which means more TB12 comebacks.  Ryan Tannehill continues on a steady incline.  Drew Brees is aging and the Saints want to preserve him as long as they can.  With the current mind set that Mark Ingram will take on a bigger load this next season, Brees is going to take a massive hit in fantasy.  Eli Manning can repeat last year with the talent around him, but most of the QB's after Eli are just as good if not better on any given day.  After the top 5 QB's,  there is a massive drop off in points (around 50).  QB is still a deep position this year and should be unless a resurgent RB era occurs in the next five-ten years.

Spring Training or ( That guy in our league drafted Zach Wheeler and I do not think he is coming back to change his roster)

     Welcome to Spring Training.  Where drafts, competitions, and injuries all collide before the season even starts.  I personally believe that leagues drafted in early march are the most fearless and researched.  Though, you really can not predict injuries.  Zach Wheeler was decently high on draft boards everywhere.  Now he is going to be spending the next thirteen months rehabbing, fifteenth before he is anywhere near a mound in the major leagues.  Besides injuries, Spring Training is very exciting.  You get to see the league mates you have not seen since last year.  Speculate what player is going to be the break out star for their team.  Tell them before the draft that Rusney Castillo has the starting job locked so you can get Mookie Betts (the man with his foot really in the door).  But other than the gamesmanship, its about being together with your friends and enjoying a sport you love to watch and/or play.  Whether it is your first time sitting in an two hour auction draft with just a price list or you are a season vet with sleepers and a prospectus list in a keepers league; it is the beginning of another year.  To repeat, retry, conquer, progress, rebuild, or just give it your best shot.  Memories and mocking will go hand in hand, but this will be our year.  This is our sport.

Using OFIP, An experimental stat to help you draft by.

     Using FIP (a pitcher stat that removes the defense from either boosting for lowering a pitchers ERA), I adapted a stat called OFIP.  Whether it is an official stat or not, I do not know.  It measures both strength and batters eye.  An example of what you might think is: Chris Davis is probably pretty high on the list of 1B.  You would be wrong.  Strikes out entirely to much.  This stat will not help with SB however, so that you have to find on your own.  Most of these hitters have a 260+ batting average.  I spent hours noting down numbers out of a rotowire magazine into this list.  It is not the end all be all.  If you can get Mike Trout, go for it.  These are people that are solid batters who will be there most of the draft. Happy hunting everyone.

                                                       Top 10 by position (27 OF)

Catchers

1. Devin Mesoraco

2. Buster Posey

3. Brian McCann

4. Evan Gattis

5. Jonathon Lucroy

6. Yasmani Grandal

7. Travis D'Arnaud

8. Derek Norris

9. John Jaso

10. Willin Rosario

First Baseman

1. Edwin Encarnacion

2. Victor Martinez

3. Anthony Rizzo

4. Jose Abreau

5. Lucas Duda

6. Albert Pujols

7. Joey Votto

8. Paul Goldschmitt

9. Prince Fielder

10. Adrian Gonzalez

Second Baseman

1. Niel Walker

2. Robinson Cano

3. Ben Zobrist

4. Ian Kinsler

5 Kolten Wong

6. Chase Utley

7. Dustin Pedroia

8. Jose Altuve

9. Joe Panik

10. Scooter Gennett

Second baseman are shallow in this stat, so its a good position to seek SB i.e. Dee Gordon.

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki

2. Jhonny Peralta

3. Jimmy Rollins

4. Hanley Ramirez

5. Alexei Ramirez

6. Starlin Castro

7. Jordy Mercer

8. Ian Desmond

9. Jose Reyes

10. Erick Aybar

Third Baseman

1. Manny Manchado

2. Josh Donaldson

3. Adrian Beltre

4. Nolan Arenado

5. Todd Fraizer

6. Kyle Seager

7. Ryan Zimmerman

8. Anthony Rendon* -would rank 3rd in the second baseman

9. Kris Bryant

10. Evan Longoria

11. Matt Carpenter

                                     Top 27 OF 

1. Jose Bautista

2. Giancarlo Stanton

3. Nelson Cruz

4. Andrew McCutchen

5. Mike Trout

6. George Springer

7. Corey Dickerson

8. Michael Brantley

9. Coco Crisp

10. Matt Holiday

11. Yasmani Tomas* -maybe the only player on the list based on projections

12. Jayson Worth

13. Carlos Gonzalez

14. Melky Cabrera

15. Matt Kemp

16. Joc Pederson

17. Alex Gordon

18. Michael Cuddyer

19. J.D. Martinez

20. Jacoby Ellsbury

21. Yasiel Puig

22. Carlos Gomez

23. Ryan Braun 

24. Rusney Castillo

25. Adam Jones

26. Jason Heyward

27. Kole Calhoun

Here is an example of a team i drafted this year using this list and some research. I was 8th pick in a 10-team snake roto.

C. Devin Mesoraco

1B. Edwin Encarnacion

2B. Neil Walker

3B. Josh Donaldson

SS. Starlin Castro

2B/SS Elvis Andrus

1B/3B Jose Abreu

OF. Billy Hamilton

OF. Leonys Martin

OF. Melky Cabrera- his batting average makes up for Billy Hamilton

OF. Ben Revere- target this man for a 290+average and 40+ steals

OF. Adam Eaton

UTIL. Victor Martinez

Bench Michael Bourn- Waiting for Denard Span to come back in may.

Pitching is relatively deep these days.

P Corey Kluber

P Trevor Rosenthal

P Gio Gonzalez

P Fernando Rodney

P Jared Weaver

P Rafael Soriano- not the best pick. but closers are tricky

P Ian Kennedy

P Phil Hughes

P Mike Fiers

Bench LaTroy Hawkins

Bench Chris Tillman

My Opinion on the Number 1 and 2 QB in the 2015 NFL Draft

     Most people have Jameis Winston locked in as the number one pick in the upcoming draft.  Despite the off-field problems, people recognize the great player he has the potential to be.  Why not Mariota?  A leader by example, with a spotless crime record.  I began to ponder why a professional football team would take the risk of Winston over Mariota.  I have heard it a thousand times over the last couple weeks, "college teams do not get players ready for NFL systems, they only do what is necessary to win".  For a team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the risk of off-field problems could easily beat out the "wait and see" mentality.  The Bucs do not want to take the time to teach Mariota all the lingo and mechanics it takes to run a pro offense.  Granted, Lovie Smith is a defensive minded coach.  Fostering a learning environment for Mariota would prove to be a task for a much more QB friendly staff.  As for Winston,  he claims he is ready to be the face of a franchise.  What kind of face?  We learned that players such as Jhonny Maziel can be the face of a franchise and the face of a rehab center at the same time.  Alas, i can not see the future.  I can, however, tell you that Mariota will face a tough season if he runs like he did at Oregon.  At any given moment a player can get injured.  QB that scramble find themselves watching from the bench more than actually playing.  Players like RG3 and Sam Bradford are in a league of their own in that category.  My expectation is that Winston goes first.   Mariota will start this year too though.  If Winston can clean up his act, and Mariota can stay healthy, we should see two very talented young men playing exciting football.  The downside is Winston gets suspended and Mariota tears an ACL.  In all the controversy, we must remember it takes twenty-two players to be successful.  It takes fifty-three to win a Superbowl.

The Day After Week 14

    Everyone should be in the playoffs now.  Sometimes these players make me eat my words i.e. EJ Manuel (1pt) and Andre Holmes (6pt).  Fantasy sports have so much luck involved it should be an extension of Vegas.  At least some of us do not play for money. Well here it goes.

Promotions

QB - Josh McCown (CHI)

HB - Joique Bell (DET)

WR - Julian Edelman (NE)

TE - Dennis Pitta (BAL)

    Josh McCown is older than most of the people who read my blog, but he has all the weapons to get the fantasy job done until Cutler is completely healthy.  Reggie Bush is the all-star back in the lions backfield, but he has been fighting off nagging injuries lately.  Julian Edelman is already good and now that Gronk is gone he is even better.  Dennis Pitta came back from injury this last week and showed us he is ready to put points back on the board for a dismal Ravens offense.

Demotions

QB - Mike Glennon (TB)

HB - Stevan Ridley (NE)

WR - Pierre Garcon (WAS)

TE - Gronk (NE)

    Glennon has been consistent.  He was carrying the team at first with his arm and then Greg Shiano decided that running the ball makes more sense.  Ridley fumbled once and Vereen has been starting since.  Garcon racks up a ton of targets (2nd in the league) and very few yards.  Gronk just being Gronk on the IR now.

One-Hit Wonders

QB - Geno Smith (NYJ)

HB - Shonn Greene (TEN)

WR - LaVon Brazill (IND)

TE - Luke Wilson (SEA)

    I have seen broken windshield wipers do better than Geno Smith on a weekly basis.  Greene had two TDs for the first time since the Jets were good.  LaVon Brazill rides the pine like its a bull.  Luke Wilson is the blocking TE, his hands are made of stone.

The Day After Week 13

I am running late this week on my writing.  For some of you, the playoffs are starting and others the season is ending.  Here is to a championship run or a " Get ready for next season because I will win next year ".

Promotions
QB - EJ Manuel (BUF)
HB - Donald Brown (IND)
WR - Doug Balwin (SEA)
TE - Ladarius Green (SD)

    With all these injuries floating around, having a back up option is not a bad idea.  Manuel fits that bill after posting back to back solid performances.  Donald Brown has taken over the feature back duties in Indy and though he is not a must start this weekend, he has a few must start weeks remaining for that playoff push you may need.  Baldwin has 45 points over the last 4 weeks and nothing lower than 7.  Ladarius Green is looking like the new Antonio Gates averaging just over 10 points per game for the last 3 weeks.

Demotions
QB - Andrew Luck (IND)
HB - Giovani Bernard (CIN)
WR - Dwayne Bowe (KC)
TE - Antonio Gates (SD)

    Andrew Luck looked like he had turned the fantasy corner and at that moment, we stood in awe.  Then the last three weeks happened.  Do not drop him, but pray he ends the slump.  Giovani Bernard is one of the most electric running backs in the game and that is why he is owned, but the ship is sinking the last couple of weeks.  I really like Bowe.  I knew that he would throw a few games in there to reward some patient owners and then return to Alex Smith-ocrtiy.  Antonio Gates is not what he use to be and that is why the Chargers are turning to Ladarius Green.  Gates has 4 points over the last 2 weeks.

One-Hit Wonders
QB - Brandon Weeden (CLE)
HB - BenJarvus Green-Ellis (CIN)
WR - Andre Holmes (OAK)
TE - Zach Ertz (PHI)

    Brandon Weeden is not good.  Josh Gordon made Weeden look good.  The Law Firm has been going through papers lately and decided to show up at court (score a TD).  Who is Andre Holmes?  Zach Ertz is the more athletic side of Brent Celek.  Nick Foles feeds him a few yards a game to keep him happy and every once in a blue moon, he gives fantasy owners a treat.

The Day After Week 12

Promotions
QB - Alex Smith (KC)
HB - Benny Cunningham (STL)
WR - Kendall Wright (TEN)
TE - Colby Fleener (IND)

    Alex Smith has had to actually throw the ball of late and not just put the game on cruise control behind that scary defense.  Zac Stacy is injured going into this weekend and the prime beneficiary of the carries will be Benny.  Kendall Wright is slowly becoming more and more consistent scoring over 6 points a week for the last 3 weeks.  Reggie Wayne's absence has been killing the Colts, but Luck finally started to see the big TE giving Fleener over 20 points for the last two weeks.

Demotions
QB - Joe Flacco (BAL)
HB - Stevan Ridley (NE)
WR - Danny Amendola (NE)
TE - Jordan Cameron (CLE)

     Joe Flacco is absolutely terrible without any weapons.  It is a wonder that the Ravens even won a Super Bowl.  Ridley is back in the doghouse with yet another fumble.  His status going into the next game is TBD.  Danny Amendola has been healthy and still does not get ball.  Not worth the hassle. Jordan Cameron was a huge success story at the beginning of the season,  but lately they have been leaving his number out of the plays.

One Hit Wonders

QB - Colin Kaepernick (SF)
HB - Marcel Reece (OAK)
WR - Donnie Avery (KC)
TE - Jared Cook (STL)

    Every good game Kaepernick has had this season have been against terrible teams (i.e. Jacksonville, Washington).  Marcel Reece is one of the best FBs in football, just not a good fantasy option since Jennings is in the drivers seat.  Donnie Avery went over 10 points for only the second time this season.  It is not a growing trend.  Jared Cook has the potential to be a top 10 TE in terms of ability, but he never gets that break.  Since the two TD performance at the beginning of the season, he has only managed two more.  Lance Kendricks also hawked a few TDs from him.